China’s Exports Surprise On The Upside In February


China’s export increased 48.3% over a year earlier to US$169.2 billion in February, much higher than market consensus, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs.

Imports declined by 20.5% on a year-on-year basis in February to US$108.6 billion.

This led to the record high trade surplus of US$60.6 billion for the month.

According to Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research, the trade numbers are driven by a combination of Chinese New Year distortion and a sharp drop in commodity import prices.

The bank predicts that March exports data are likely to be subject to at least a small downward distortion because of the Chinese New Year is very late this year, and given a much higher base effect from 2014, year-over-year growth is likely to fall to the single digits.

 

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